Why Rory McIlroy won’t win The Masters

Why the world number one won't win The Masters

Rory McIlroy

Going into the first Major of the season there are many people already crowning the world number one as champion, but here Nick Bonfield explains why Rory McIlroy won't win The Masters

Why Rory McIlroy won’t win The Masters

Before the final day’s play at the 2014 Open Championship, Rory McIlroy was asked what victory in golf’s most prestigious tournament would mean to him.

His response was wonderfully succinct: “A lot more scrutiny before the Masters.”

Since his supreme victory at Hoylake, many people have spoken about the career Grand Slam as something of an inevitability. And yes, if he reproduces the same form he showed between the BMW PGA in March and the USPGA in August, he’ll be very tough to beat.

But that’s a big if. Some seem to take his form last year as a guarantee that he’ll be on top of his game at Augusta. Golf, the most capricious sport in existence, doesn’t work like that.

He’s not played bad golf this season, far from it, but he’s nowhere near the level he was in July and August 2014. And let’s not forget McIlroy hasn’t yet learned the enviable Tiger-esque trait of winning without his best golf.

With so many top golfers coming into form ahead of The Masters – the likes of Bubba Watson, Jason Day and Jordan Spieth spring to mind – the Ulsterman will need to be on top of his game to secure a maiden Green Jacket.

He’s finished 9th and 11th in his last two PGA Tour starts, something that seemingly contradicts by somewhat glass-half-empty stance, but his iron play has been below par and he’s missed a number of makeable putts from between six and 12 feet.

He’ll need to address both those facets, with iron distance control key at Augusta and putting absolutely crucial to success in any major.

I know his driving is imperious, and his high, right-to-left ball flight is tailor-made for The Masters, but that doesn’t mean a great deal if it isn’t followed by precise approaches and a confident putting stroke, particularly on Augusta’s notoriously treacherous green complexes.

One stat in particular is quite alarming, as far as I’m concerned. On approaches from 100-125 yards, McIlroy averages more than 20 feet from the hole. On approaches from 125-150 yards, that figure is outside 30 feet. With his driving distance, this is the range most of his second shots will be struck from in Georgia.

I know he’ll be looking to destroy the par-5s, but they’re a short bunch at Augusta, with three easily in reach for everyone in the field. All the other main contenders – Day, Watson etcetera – are more than powerful enough to find all four in two shots.

My other area of concern pertains to mental factors. He’ll face so much additional scrutiny in his quest to win all four majors by the age of 25 that it’ll be much harder than normal to focus exclusively on the task at hand.

As we all know, success in golf comes when you stay in the moment, control your emotion and take one shot at a time. Rory will be – and already has been – bombarded with so many questions about winning at Augusta that such thoughts will inevitably be swimming around in his subconscious as he bids to win a fifth Major title.

Of course, he’s still the huge favourite, and rightly so. But, given the above, I think we’ll have to put the coronation on hold for at least one more year.

Nick Bonfield
Features Editor

Nick Bonfield joined Golf Monthly in 2012 after graduating from Exeter University and earning an NCTJ-accredited journalism diploma from News Associates in Wimbledon. He is responsible for managing production of the magazine, sub-editing, writing, commissioning and coordinating all features across print and online. Most of his online work is opinion-based and typically centres around the Majors and significant events in the global golfing calendar. Nick has been an avid golf fan since the age of ten and became obsessed with the professional game after watching Mike Weir and Shaun Micheel win The Masters and PGA Championship respectively in 2003. In his time with Golf Monthly, he's interviewed the likes of Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Jose Maria Olazabal, Henrik Stenson, Padraig Harrington, Lee Westwood and Billy Horschel and has ghost-written columns for Westwood, Wayne Riley, Matthew Southgate, Chris Wood and Eddie Pepperell. Nick is a 12-handicap golfer and his favourite courses include Old Head, Sunningdale New, Penha Longha, Valderrama and Bearwood Lakes. If you have a feature pitch for Nick, please email nick.bonfield@futurenet.com with 'Pitch' in the subject line. Nick is currently playing: Driver: TaylorMade M1 Fairway wood: TaylorMade RBZ Stage 2 Hybrid: Ping Crossover Irons (4-9): Nike Vapor Speed Wedges: Cleveland CBX Full Face, 56˚, Titleist Vokey SM4, 60˚ Putter: testing in progress! Ball: TaylorMade TP5x